'chance-led' originates from English, specifically formed from the noun 'chance' (from Old French 'cheance') and the past participle 'led' from Old English 'lǣdan', where 'cheance' meant 'fortune' and 'lǣdan' meant 'to lead'.

'chance' changed from Old French word 'cheance' and entered Middle English as 'chaunce', eventually becoming modern English 'chance'; 'led' developed from Old English past participle forms of 'lǣdan' and became 'led' in modern English. The compound 'chance-led' is a modern descriptive formation combining these elements.

Initially, 'chance' meant 'fortune' or 'an occurrence' and 'led' was the past participle of 'lead'; over time the compound came to mean 'guided or determined by chance' in the sense of events or decisions being driven by chance rather than intention.